November 16, 2008
      

HOVZ Public Experiment in Stock Price Forecasting
HOVZ Stock Market Forecasts has now completed a planned five-year public test of a set of tools we developed for statistical stock market price forecasting. The results are now being evaluated in detail. Overall, we had some success -- stocks we predicted would do well, generally performed better than our predicted losers. Unfortunately, we could not get away from the reality that higher probable rewards also entailed nearly certain higher risks. Because of this high risk factor we are not encouraging others to use our forecasts.

HOVZ provides investment research, not investment advice. We can't tell you what is best for your particular situation. Be cautious!     We still consider our techniques to be experimental. Investing carries real risks. Past results do not guarantee future results.

Goal line stand! Shaky, but holding...

Last week stock markets tested their October lows. According to J.P. Morgan retests occur 86% of the time, so the retest was welcome and normal. With the terrific volatility, though, it sure didn't feel comforting. But, that is the point -- everyone was given a great big scare and was prodded to join a selling stampede. And they didn't! So far, the market lows are holding. Liz Ann Sonders at Charles Schwab seems to agree. Continue reading article
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